KEY SUMMARY POINTS
01
Globally there are ~one billion smokers[1] and ~110 million adult consumers# of Smokeless Products.
02
Multiple regulatory and public health authorities recognise the public health potential of Tobacco Harm Reduction.
03
Population modelling suggests that if other countries had utilised THR to achieve lower smoking rates similar to Sweden, the public health benefits would be profound (2.9 million tobacco-related premature deaths could have been avoided in the EU between 2000-2019)[2].
Global Progress on THR
Around the world we can see the impact that Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) has had. While estimates may vary depending on the source, it is estimated that there are ~110 million adult consumers of Smokeless Products globally#; however, approximately one billion adult smokers still remain[1]. Breaking this down further, of the one billion adult smokers, nearly one third are in China[3]. In the rest of the world where we operate, which excludes China and a number of other markets, there are more than 700 million adult smokers. Our goal is to encourage those adult smokers, who would otherwise continue to smoke, to switch completely to Smokeless Products.
We have already discussed Sweden’s forthcoming smoke-free status. Norway is set to follow suit with its smoking rate roughly halving to 7% in the last 10 years[4].
Across the U.S., smoking rates are at an all-time low, corresponding with increased use of Vapour Products[5],[6]. Based on the recent National Health Interview Survey from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), smoke-free status (defined as <5% smoking prevalence) has been essentially achieved for those aged 18-24 as smoking rates have dropped to around 5%, in part dispelling the assertion made by some public health authorities that Vapour Products act as a gateway to increased cigarette smoking[5].
“Nicotine vaping is not risk-free, but it is less harmful*† than smoking.”
UK National Health Service 2026[7]
Similarly, positive changes are happening in the UK, where approximately 3 million former adult smokers have switched completely to Smokeless Products[8]. This follows the UK Government’s explicit recognition of the harm reduction potential of Vapour Products[7].
In Japan, smoking rates are at an all-time low, partly due to the fact that Heated Products (HPs) now account for >46% of the country’s tobacco market[9].
We have come a long way in our pursuit of THR, with significant progress being made in the last decade (Table 1).
Challenges and Opportunities
Since launching our first Vapour Products in 2013, we have undergone a transformational journey towards our goal to create A Better Tomorrow™ by Building a Smokeless World. Yet, while we have made significant progress, and in some of our markets we make 70% of our revenue from Smokeless Products, there are still some key global markets – Brazil, Mexico and Türkiye, for example, where the sale of Smokeless Products is currently prohibited.
Additionally, restricting or prohibiting Smokeless Products, or imposing unbalanced measures that reduce their acceptability among adult smokers and nicotine consumers (e.g., limits on flavours or nicotine levels), may have unintended consequences: (i) continued or increased smoking and (ii) growth of illicit and lower-quality Smokeless Product markets.
~110m
Global, adult consumers of Smokeless Products#
Table 1. Over a decade of transformation at BAT
| Transformation Parameter | 2013 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Launched Products | Vuse Solo and Vype | Global multi-category portfolio |
| Factory Made Cigarette Volumes (billions of cigarettes) | 676 | 465 |
| Number of BAT cigarette markets | 200 | >140 |
| Relative Smokeless Product Annual R&D Investment | 1x | 2.5x |
| THR Scientific Evidence | Foundational | Substantial |
| Number of BAT Smokeless Product markets | 2 | 78 |
| Number of global Smokeless Product adult consumers# | 1000s | 34.1 million |
| Global Smokeless Product revenues | £Ks | £3.6bn |
| Countries where Smokeless Product revenues > 30% total BAT revenue | 0 | 23 |
Learnings to be Applied Globally
Displacing traditional cigarettes with Smokeless Products requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses aspects of the market, public perception, regulation, and consumer behaviour. Significant progress on these factors would accelerate global THR (Figure 1), which could translate into a substantial and significant global public health benefit.
Figure 1. Accelerating progress in global THR
⬆︎ BAT Led ⬆︎
Affordability and Accessibility
Appropriate pricing is of critical importance to encourage adult smokers, who would otherwise continue to smoke, to switch completely to Smokeless Products.
Convenient access to Smokeless Products through multiple retail channels can facilitate switching for adult smokers.
Product Innovation
A diverse range of Smokeless Products to meet different consumer preferences and needs.
Ongoing innovation is key to BAT’s improved product quality, flavours and technology, making products more appealing to adult smokers.
Marketing Principles
BAT markets strictly to adult tobacco and nicotine consumers only.
Marketing that targets underage populations should not be permitted.
Scientific THR Evidence
Comprehensive studies evaluating the impact of Smokeless Products on public health, tobacco consumption patterns, and smoking-related diseases is crucial.
Evidence accessible to policy makers and public health experts.
Smokeless Product Misperception
Public perception of the risk profile of Smokeless Products plays a significant role in their adoption.
Science-based education campaigns would give accurate information on the reduced-risk*† potential of Smokeless Products.
Post-Market Monitoring and Enforcement
Post-market surveillance would identify potential safety or product issues related to non-compliance.
Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration
Stakeholder collaboration is vital to develop coherent regulatory strategies and communications on THR, the risk profile of Smokeless Products and the benefit of quitting smoking or switching to Smokeless Products.
Regulatory Environment
Development of regulations that differentiate Smokeless Products from cigarettes, making them accessible to adult consumers while ensuring they meet safety and quality standards, is critical for the realisation of the benefits of THR.
Public Health Support of THR
The science of THR should be made available for public health stakeholders including doctors, pharmacists and public health practitioners, to help inform them of the potential public health benefits, which can then be communicated to adult smokers.
Nicotine Misperception
Public misperception of the risk profile of nicotine plays a significant role in relation to THR.
Science-based education campaigns would give accurate information on the true risk profile of nicotine.
⬇︎ Stakeholder Led ⬇︎
Disclaimers
* Based on the weight of evidence and assuming a complete switch from cigarette smoking. These products are not risk free and are addictive.
† Products sold in the U.S., including Vuse, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, and Camel Snus, are subject to FDA regulation and no reduced risk claims will be made as to these products without agency clearance.
# Adult smokers are adult consumers who smoke daily. Adult smokeless product consumers are adult consumers who use any smokeless product category at least on a weekly basis. BAT smokeless product consumers are defined as adults who consume Vapour, Heating Products, Modern Oral pouches or Traditional Oral pouches at least on a weekly basis. For cross manufacturer estimates, the smokeless products category excludes Traditional Oral pouches. For full definitions, please refer to the cautionary statement.
References
A full list of references for this page can be found in the section 11. References.
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