Measuring BAT's Transformation
Our ambition is to build A Better Tomorrow™, reducing the health impact of our business by Building a Smokeless World. Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) is how we will achieve this goal.
THR aims to minimise smoking-related morbidity and mortality. We will achieve this through encouraging adult smokers, who would otherwise continue to smoke, to switch completely to lower risk*† profile products, such as Vapour Products, Heated Products, Oral Tobacco Products, and Oral Nicotine Pouches. The success of THR can be defined by an equation where the greater the number of continuing adult smokers, who switch to lower risk*† profile products, the greater the THR outcome (Figure 1)[1]. Increasing the availability of lower risk*† profile products will further increase the impact of THR.
Tobacco Harm Reduction
=
Scientifically Substantiated Reduced-Risk*† Products
X
The Number of Adult Consumers Using Reduced-Risk*† Products Who Would Otherwise Smoke Cigarettes
Figure 1. Tobacco Harm Reduction Equation
The leading country where demonstrable THR has occurred is Sweden, where Oral Tobacco Product and Oral Nicotine Pouch use has nearly replaced cigarette smoking.
The World Health Organization (WHO) considers countries to be smoke-free when smoking prevalence is less than 5% of the population[2]. The European Union (EU) has tasked all its member states with becoming smoke-free by 2040[3]. Barring a dramatic shift in progress, we believe that most will miss this target with the number of smokers likely to increase over the coming decade[4].
Sweden, however, will achieve this historic milestone very soon[5], and likely significantly before every other nation in the bloc is even within sight of the achievement. The country is already reaping the benefits, with cancer rates and tobacco-related deaths significantly lower than all its peers[6].
The opportunity for THR to have a beneficial impact on public health is enormous. The introduction to market of three new categories of Smokeless Products (Heated Products, Vapour Products and Oral Nicotine Pouches) has shown that they have potential to penetrate global cigarette markets equally, or more deeply than Oral Tobacco Products like snus.
Additionally, because of different consumer preferences, our multi-category strategy enables us to satisfy the broadest range of adult smokers. This in turn results in increased penetration of more cigarette markets around the globe, meaning that the potential beneficial global public health impact is even more profound.
“Already today, several public health organisations and regulators are supporting the use of Smokeless Products. However, to ensure that the full potential of the THR opportunity is realised, much more focus is required to:
- ensure that adult smokers in all markets across the world have access to Smokeless Products;
- improve the accuracy of government sanctioned health-related communications surrounding Smokeless Products; and
- enable regulatory frameworks that balance product standards to encourage adult smokers who won’t quit, to switch to Smokeless Products, while also avoiding underage uptake.”
Dr James Murphy
Director, Research & Science
THR: Measuring Progress
As we look forward into the next decade of Building a Smokeless World, it is important to assess how far BAT has come, as well as the progress of THR globally.
Table 1. Tobacco Harm Reduction Metrics – BAT's Decade of Transformation
| Parameter | 2013 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Cigarette Volume (Billions of Sticks) | 676 | 465 |
| Number of BAT Cigarette Markets | 200 | >140 |
| Lower Risk Profile Smokeless Product Categories | Vapour | Multi-Category |
| Number of BAT Smokeless Product Markets | 2 | 78 |
| Number of BAT Smokeless Product Consumers (millions)# | <1 | 34.1 |
| Smokeless Product Revenues (£bn) | <0.1 | 3.6 |
| Markets where Smokeless Products >30% BAT Revenue | 0 | 23 |
| Smokeless Product Revenue as % of Group Revenue | <0.1% | 18% |
| Scientific Publications on Smokeless Products | 51 | >280 |
| Global Users of Smokeless Product (Millions)# | ~10 | >100 |
Table 2. Tobacco Harm Reduction Metrics – Smokeless Products Globally
| Heated Products | Vapour Products | Oral Nicotine Pouches | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Adult Consumers, 2025 (millions) | 35 | 74 | 23 | |||
| Adult Consumer Growth, 2020-2025 (%) | 28 | 16 | 65 | |||
| Top Five Markets - Adult Consumers, 2025 (millions) | Japan | 9.6 | U.S. | 31.7 | U.S. | 14.8 |
| Italy | 3.6 | UK | 5.9 | UK | 1.5 | |
| South Korea | 2.7 | Germany | 2.8 | Japan | 0.9 | |
| Ukraine | 2.1 | Italy | 2.8 | Pakistan | 0.8 | |
| Germany | 1.7 | France | 2.7 | Sweden | 0.6 | |
Footnotes
# Adult smokers are adult consumers who smoke daily. Adult smokeless product consumers are adult consumers who use any smokeless product category at least on a weekly basis. BAT smokeless product consumers are defined as adults who consume Vapour, Heating Products, Modern Oral pouches or Traditional Oral pouches at least on a weekly basis. For cross manufacturer estimates, the smokeless products category excludes Traditional Oral pouches. For full definitions, please refer to the cautionary statement.
* Based on the weight of evidence and assuming a complete switch from cigarette smoking. These products are not risk free and are addictive.
† Products sold in the U.S., including Vuse, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, and Camel Snus, are subject to FDA regulation and no reduced-risk claims will be made as to these products without agency clearance.
References
A full list of references for this page can be found in the section 11. References.
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