Measuring BAT's Transformation
Our ambition is A Better Tomorrow™, which is reducing the health impact of our business by Building a Smokeless World. Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) is how we will achieve this goal.
THR is minimising smoking-related morbidity and mortality. We will achieve this through encouraging adult smokers, who would otherwise continue to smoke, to switch completely to lower risk profile products, such as Vapour Products, Heated Products, Oral Tobacco Products, and Oral Nicotine Pouches. The success of THR can be defined by an equation where the greater the number of continuing adult smokers who switch to lower risk profile products, the greater the THR outcome (Figure 1).[1] Increasing the availability of lower risk profile products will further increase the impact of THR.
Tobacco Harm Reduction
=
Scientifically Substantiated Reduced-Risk*† Products
X
The Number of Consumers Using Reduced-Risk*† Products Who Would Otherwise Smoke Cigarettes
Figure 1. Tobacco Harm Reduction Equation
The leading country where demonstrable THR has occurred is Sweden, where Oral Tobacco Product and Oral Nicotine Pouch use has nearly replaced cigarette smoking. The World Health Organization (WHO) considers countries to be smoke-free when smoking prevalence is less than 5% of the population.[2] The European Union (EU) has tasked all its member states with becoming smoke-free by 2040.[3] Barring a dramatic shift in progress, we believe that most will miss this target with the number of smokers likely to increase over the coming decade.[4]
Sweden, however, will achieve this historic milestone as soon as this year - 2024.[5] That is an incredible 16 years ahead of the EU target date, and before every other nation in the bloc is even within sight of the achievement. The country is already reaping the benefits, with cancer rates and tobacco-related deaths significantly lower than all its peers. In Sweden, because of fewer adult smokers, epidemiological outcomes reveal a significant reduction in all-cause tobacco-related mortality among men (per 100,000 deaths, median provided for EU values) for lung cancer (Swe: 87 versus EU: 220); other cancer (Swe: 63 versus EU: 105); cardiovascular (Swe: 72 versus EU: 170) and all causes (Swe: 222 versus EU: 550).[6]
The opportunity for THR to have a beneficial impact on public health is enormous. The introduction to market over the last decade of three new categories of Smokeless Products (Heated Products, Vapour Products and Oral Nicotine Pouches) has shown that they can penetrate global cigarette markets equally, or more deeply than Oral Tobacco Products like snus.
Additionally, because of different consumer preferences, our multicategory strategy enables us to satisfy the needs of more and different adult smokers. This in turn results in increased penetration of more cigarette markets around the globe, meaning that the potential beneficial global public health impact is even more profound.
"Already today, several public health organisations and regulators are supporting the use of Smokeless Products. However, to ensure that the full potential of the THR opportunity is realised, much more focus is required to (i) ensure that adult smokers in all markets across the world have access to Smokeless Products, (ii) improve the accuracy of government sanctioned health-related communications surrounding Smokeless Products and (iii) enable regulatory frameworks that balance product standards to encourage adult smokers to quit while avoiding underage uptake of Smokeless Products."
Dr James Murphy
Director, Research & Science
THR: Measuring Progress
As we look forward into the next decade of Building a Smokeless World, it is important to assess how far BAT has come, as well as the progress of THR across the industry and the globe.
Table 1 and Table 2 summarise the metrics by which we assess the progress of transformation.
Table 1. Tobacco Harm Reduction Metrics – BAT's Decade of Transformation
| 2013 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cigarette Volume (Billions of Sticks) | 676 | 532 |
| Number of BAT Cigarette Markets | 200 | 145 |
| Lower Risk Profile Smokeless Product Categories | Vapour | Multi-Category |
| Number off Smokeless Product Markets | 2 | 82 |
| Number of Smokeless Product Users (millions) | <1 | 24 |
| Smokeless Product Revenues (£Bn) | <0.1 | 3.35 |
| Markets where Smokeless Products >30% BAT Revenue | 0 | 24 |
| Smokeless Product Revenue as % of Group Net Turnover | <0.1% | 18% |
| Scientific Publications on Smokeless Products | 51 | 255 |
| Global Users of Smokeless Product (Millions) | ~10 | >100 |
Table 2. Tobacco Harm Reduction Metrics – Smokeless Products Globally
| Heated Products[7] | Vapour Products[8] | Oral Nicotine Pouches[9] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Adult Consumers, 2024 (millions) | 40 | 65 | 10 | |||
| Adult Consumer Growth, 2020-2024 (%) | 66 | 55 | 500 | |||
| Top Five Markets - Adult Consumers, 2024 (millions) | Japan | 15.37 | U.S. | 17.5 | U.S. | 6.14 |
| Russia | 4.91 | UK | 5.2 | Russia | 0.65 | |
| Italy | 4.36 | Indonesia | 4.2 | UK | 0.62 | |
| South Korea | 3.45 | France | 3.6 | Sweden | 0.57 | |
| Poland | 1.68 | China | 3.4 | Poland | 0.54 | |
Footnotes
* Based on the weight of evidence and assuming a complete switch from cigarette smoking. These products are not risk free and are addictive.
† Our Vapour product Vuse (including Alto, Solo, Ciro and Vibe), and certain products, including Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, and Camel Snus, which are sold in the U.S., are subject to FDA regulation and no reduced-risk claims will be made as to these products without agency clearance.
References
[1] Bates, C., Regulation: Why less is more. E-cigarette summit, 2013. Available at: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/ecigarette-summit-12-novem/28364227#11 (Accessed: 04 July 2024)
[2] World Health Organization, Tobacco-free generations: Protecting children from tobacco in the WHO European Region. 2017. Available at: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/librariesprovider2/euro-health-topics/tobacco/20170428_who-tobaccofreegeneration-draft09.pdf?sfvrsn=76e790c9_2&download=true
[3] European Commission, Europe's Beating Cancer Plan. Available at: https://health.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-02/eu_cancer-plan_en_0.pdf
[4] Reitsma, M.B., et al., Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2021. 397(10292): p. 2337-2360 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01169-7
[5] Tobaksfakta, The Swedish Government aims at Smoke Free Sweden 2025. 2016. Available at: https://tobaksfakta.se/the-swedish-government-aims-at-smoke-free-sweden-2025/. (Accessed 14 August 2024)
[6] Ramström, L., Wikmans, T., Mortality attributable to tobacco among men in Sweden and other European countries: an analysis of data in a WHO report. Tob Induc Dis., 2014.12(1):14. DOI: 10.1186/1617-9625-12-14.
[7] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Heated Tobacco Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024
[8] ECigIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for the e-Cigarette Sector, ECigIntelligence market database, July Report. 2024
[9] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Nicotine Pouch Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024
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Smokeless Products: An Introduction -
01. Our Vision: A Need for Reappraisal -
02. The Big Questions -
03. Impact of Smoking -
04. Our Smokeless Science -
05. Our Smokeless Products -
06. THR: A Global Transformation -
07. THR: Global Regulation -
08. THR: Scientific Engagement -
09. Our Future Outlook -
10. References -
11. Our Published THR Science
