Big Question 3 - What Current Progress is Being Made on Global THR?
KEY SUMMARY POINTS
1
There are one billion smokers and approximately >115 million adult consumers of Smokeless Products.[1-4]
2
Multiple regulatory and public health authorities recognise the public health potential of Tobacco Harm Reduction.
3
Population modelling postulates that if other countries had utilised THR to achieve lower smoking rates such as Sweden, the public health benefits would be profound (2.9 million tobacco-related premature deaths avoided in the EU between 2000-2019).[5]
Global progress on THR
Around the world we can see the changes that Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) has brought. Where estimates may vary depending on source, globally, it is estimated that there are more than 115 million[1,2,3] adult consumers of Smokeless Products; however, one billion adult smokers still remain.[1] Breaking this down further, of the one billion adult smokers, nearly one third are in China.[6] In the rest of the world where we operate, which excludes China and a number of other markets, there are more than 700 million adult smokers. Our goal is to encourage those adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke to choose alternatives to cigarettes.
We have already discussed Sweden’s forthcoming smoke-free status. Norway is set to follow suit with its smoking rate halved to 7% in the last 10 years.[7]
Across the U.S., smoking rates are at an all-time low, corresponding with increased use of Vapour Products.[8,9] Based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), smoke-free status (defined as <5% smoking prevalence) has been essentially achieved for those aged 18-24 as smoking rates have dropped to around 5%, in part dispelling the assertion made by some public health authorities that vaping acts as a gateway to increased cigarette smoking.[8]
"Nicotine vaping is not risk-free, but it is substantially less harmful than smoking"
UK National Health Service
(2023)[10]
Similarly, positive changes are happening in the UK, where approximately 2.7 million former adult smokers have switched completely.[11] This follows the UK Government’s explicit recognition of vaping’s harm reduction potential.[10]
In Japan, smoking rates are at an all-time low, partly due to the fact that Heated Products (HPs) now account for >44% of the country’s tobacco market.[12,13,14]
We have come a long way in our pursuit of THR, with significant progress being made in the last decade (Table 1).
Challenges and Opportunities
Since launching our first Vapour Products in 2013, we have undergone a transformational journey towards our goal to create A Better Tomorrow™ by Building a Smokeless World. Yet, while we have made significant progress, and in some of our markets we make 70% of our revenue from Smokeless Products, there are still some key global markets – Brazil, Mexico and Türkiye, for example – where the sale of Smokeless Products is currently prohibited.
Additionally, unintended consequences of not permitting the sale of Smokeless Products are that (i) smoking continues / increases and (ii) illicit and low quality Smokeless Products infiltrate the market. Our goal is to have deeper Smokeless Product penetration in the markets where they are permitted for sale.
>115 million
Global, adult consumers of Smokeless Products[1,2,3]
Table 1. A decade of transformation at BAT
| Transformation Parameter | 2013 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Launched Products | Vuse Solo and Vype | Global multi-category portfolio |
| Factory Made Cigarette Volumes (billions of cigarettes) | 676 | 570 |
| Number of BAT cigarette markets | 200 | 145 |
| Relative Smokeless Product Annual R&D Investment | 1x | 2.5x |
| THR Scientific Evidence | Foundational | Comprehensive |
| Number of BAT Smokeless Product markets | 2 | 82 |
| Number of global Smokeless Product adult consumers | 1000’s | 23.9 million |
| Global Smokeless Product revenues | £Ks | £3.4bn |
| Countries where Smokeless Product revenues > 30% total BAT revenue | 0 | 25 |
Learnings to be applied globally
Displacing traditional cigarettes with Smokeless Products requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses aspects of the market, public perception, regulation, and consumer behaviour. Significant progress on these factors would accelerate Global THR (Figure 1), which could translate into a substantial and significant global public health benefit.
Figure 1. Accelerating progress in global THR
⬆︎ BAT Led ⬆︎
Affordability and Accessibility
Appropriate pricing is of critical importance to encourage adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke to switch.
Accessibility for adult smokers is possible through various retail channels.
Product Innovation
A diverse range of Smokeless Products that can cater to different consumer preferences.
Ongoing innovation is key to BAT's improved product quality, flavours and technology, making them more appealing to adult smokers.
Marketing Principles
BAT market to adult tobacco and nicotine consumers only, encouraging the switch to Smokeless Products.
Marketing that targets undrage populations should not be permitted.
Scientific THR Evidence
Comprehensive studies evaluating the impact of Smokeless Products on public health, tobacco consumption patterns, and smoking-related diseases is crucial.
Evidence accessible to policy makers and public health experts.
Smokeless Product Misperception
Public perception of the risk profile of Smokeless Products plays a significant role in their adoption.
Science based education campaigns would give accurate information on the reduced-risk*† potential of Smokeless Products.
Post-Market Monitoring and Enforcement
Post-market surveillance would identify potential safety or non-compliance product issues.
Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration
Stakeholder collaboration is vital to develop coherent regulatory strategies and communications on THR, the risk profile of Smokeless Products and the benefit of quitting or switching to Smokeless Products.
Regulatory Environment
Development of regulations that differentiate Smokeless Products from cigarettes making them accessible to adult consumers, while ensuring they meet safety and quality standards, is critical for the realisation of the benefits of THR.
Public Health Support of THR
The science of THR should be made available for public health stakeholders including doctors, pharmacists and public health practitioners, to help inform them of the potential public health benefits, which can then be communicated to adult smokers.
Nicotine Misperception
Public misperception of the risk profile of nicotine plays a significant role in relation to THR.
Science-based education campaigns would give accurate information on the true risk profile of nicotine.
⬇︎ Stakeholder Led ⬇︎
Disclaimers
* Based on the weight of evidence and assuming a complete switch from cigarette smoking. These products are not risk free and are addictive.
† Our products as sold in the U.S., including Vuse, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, and Camel Snus, are subject to FDA regulation and no reduced-risk claims
will be made as to these products without agency clearance.
References
[1] World Health Organization, WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic 2021: addressing new and emerging products. 2021. Available at: https://www.paho.org/en/node/82149 (Accessed: 22 July 2024)
[2] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Nicotine Pouch Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024
[3] TobaccoIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for Alternative Tobacco & Nicotine Products, Heated Tobacco Market Database, Quarter 1 Report. 2024
[4] ECigIntelligence, Regulatory & Market Intelligence for the e-Cigarette Sector, ECigIntelligence market database, July Report. 2024
[5] International and Local Tobacco Harm Reduction Experts, Report: Integrating harm reduction into tobacco control. Lives Saved. Available at: https://smokefreesweden.org/lives-saved.pdf
[6] World Health Organization, Tobacco in China. Available at: https://www.who.int/china/health-topics/tobacco
[7] Statistics Norway, Tobacco, alcohol and other drugs. Available at: https://www.ssb.no/en/helse/helseforhold-og-levevaner/statistikk/roykalkohol-og-andre-rusmidler (Accessed: 22 July 2024)
[8] CDC, Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults in the United States. Available at:https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/adult_data/cig_smoking/index.htm(Accessed: 17 July 2024)
[9] Kramarow E.A. and Elgaddal N. Current Electronic Cigarette Use Among Adults Aged 18 and Over: United States, 2021. NCHS Data Brief, no 475. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2023. DOI: 10.15620/cdc:129966
[10] NHS, Vaping myths and facts. Available at: https://www.nhs.uk/better-health/quit-smoking/vaping-to-quit-smoking/vaping-myths-and-the-facts/ (Accessed 15 July 2024)
[11] Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), Use of e-cigarettes (vapes) among adults in Great Britain. 2023. Available at: https://ash.org.uk/uploads/Use-of-e-cigarettes-among-adults-in-Great-Britain-2023.pdf?v=1691058248
[12] Global Action to End Smoking, State of Smoking and Health in Japan. Available at: https://globalactiontoendsmoking.org/research/tobacco-around-the-world/japan/ (Accessed: 17 July 2024)
[13] Euromonitor International, Market Sizes, Cigarettes – Japan, Tobacco: Euromonitor from trade sources/national statistics (Accessed 5 August 2024)
[14] Euromonitor International, Market Sizes, Heated Tobacco – Japan, Tobacco: Euromonitor from trade sources/national statistics (Accessed 5 August 2024)
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Smokeless Products: An Introduction -
01. Our Vision: A Need for Reappraisal -
02. The Big Questions -
03. Impact of Smoking -
04. Our Smokeless Science -
05. Our Smokeless Products -
06. THR: A Global Transformation -
07. THR: Global Regulation -
08. THR: Scientific Engagement -
09. Our Future Outlook -
10. References -
11. Our Published THR Science
